The questionable health of President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, the Egyptian government’s stepped-up suppression of the Muslim Brotherhood, and state-controlled news media reports that the Parliament could be broken down have all led to a suspicion that Mr. Mubarak may soon transition his power to a successor, according to the New York Times.
President Mubarak, 81, who has held his position for about 28 years, has not given any hints of stepping down, and his allies have said that he would most likely “serve another five-year term when his current one expires in 2011.”
In the past two months, over 130 members of the Muslim Brotherhood, including three leaders, have been detained for being in a legally banned organization. The Brotherhood, an Islamist group with reported links to al-Qaeda and Hamas, is only tolerated to a certain extent, but still spreads its views in public. They make up nearly 20 percent of the opposition bloc in Parliament as independents, making them the largest contesting group.
Some believe that the government’s intention is to break down the Muslim Brotherhood in order to make them less likely to rise to prominence if the president were to resign or die.
Over 30 of those being held are being charged with money laundering.
In addition, the Egyptian news media has created vast speculation that the governing National Democratic Party is urging for a dissolve of Parliament so that a more subordinate legislature would exist prior to a presidential succession.
There are currently two believed contenders for successor; Gamal, the president’s younger son, and the chief of military intelligence, Gen. Omar Suleiman, but it is currently unknown which of them would have the military’s support. While Gamal Mubarak is of high status, veterans within his party may not support him.
In terms of his health, President Mubarak has appeared ill, especially when with President Obama in June during Mr. Obama’s trip to the Middle East. When greeting President Obama, Mr. Mubarak did not welcome him at the airport, and when his motorcade arrived, Mr. Mubarak did not walk down one flight of stairs to greet him, but rather waited for Mr. Obama to ascend. When they stood together, he looked frail.
In Aug. 2007, a newspaper editor wrote that the president’s aides were trying to hide his alleged sickness. The article did not provide specifics, and the journalist was accused of hurting the nation’s economy.
Since Mr. Mubarak has never selected a vice president, the speaker of the Parliament, “a veteran party leader,” Fathi Sorour, would temporarily be president until the incumbent’s party selects a new leader, if Mr. Mubarak were to step down or die.
President Mubarak, the only one who can determine a new leader, has not commented on action taken against the Muslim Brotherhood, a possible crumbling of Parliament or his personal health.
No officials have denied or confirmed the president’s possible constitutional decree to dissolve Parliament, and such lack of clarity has only intensified interest in the president’s future.
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